• Table of Contents
    Introduction
    The Community and School Corpration Demographics
         Figure 1(General Statistics for Johnson County & Indiana)
         
    Table 1(Census Data for Johnson County, 1970-2000)
         
    Table 2(Projected Population by Age Cohorts, 2005, 2010, 2015 & 2020 for Johnson County, Indiana)
         
    Table 3(Total Population of Political Subdivisions of Johnson County for 170-2000 with Number and Percent of Change Since 1970)
         
    Table 4(Marion County & Contiguous School Corporations, ADM, 2002 Compared to 1992)
    CGCSC White River Township General Population Characteristics
         Table 5(Profile of General Demographic Characteristics for White River Township, Johnson County and Indiana, s20002 Census)
         
    Table 5Continued (Total New Housing Units in White River Township)
         
    Table 5Continued (Labor Force Statistical)
         
    Table 5Continued (Housing Values)
    Student Demographics
         Table 6(CGCSC-wide Enrollments by Grade Level & Grade Configuration, 1993-2003)
         
    Table 7(CGCSC Elementary Enrollments, 1993-2003)
         
    Table 8(CGCSC Middle School Enrollments, 1993-2003)
         
    Table 9(CGCSC High School Enrollments, 1993-2003)
    Projected Student Enrollments
         Table 12(Number of Live Births in Johnson County from 1987-2002 & Number of Students Entering Kindergarten Five Years Later)
         
    Table 13(Average Continuation Rate 1997-1998 through 2001-2002 by Grade Level with the Past Five Year Averages)
         
    Table 14(CGCSC Enrollments Projected by Five-Year Average Resident Live Birth Rate & Five-Year Continuation Rates, 2003-2011)

    INTRODUCTION
    In the fall of 2003, the Board of School Trustees of the Center Grove Community School Corporation authorized a feasibility study for the school corporation. The study was designed to include analysis of community and student demographics and an analysis of space available for modern educational programming and student population growth. The study was directed by Dr. Robert L. Boyd, Department of Educational Leadership, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana.

    Dr. Boyd conducted the data collection and analysis. His work and analysis were greatly enhanced by the data support given to the study by the central office administrative and clerical staffs of the corporation. The information and perceptions of the central office administrative staff is demonstrative of a strong commitment to quality education for the Center Grove Community School Corporation held by this group.


    THE COMMUNITY AND SCHOOL CORPORATION DEMOGRAPHICS
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    Enrollment projections are very important in the planning process for any school corporation. However, projecting school enrollments is always subject to many variables that might modify apparent trends. National trends often apply to specific geographic areas and should be carefully analyzed before incorporation into a local study.

    A number of important considerations should be taken into account when reviewing past, current and future enrollments of a school corporation. The public schools of any community are a reflection of the understanding of the people they serve. The geography, population trends, socioeconomic status, and work opportunities in the community will influence the type of educational programs to be offered by the schools. For this reason, a description of the more significant of these factors is essential in developing a perspective for the study of a school corporation.

    In some instances these community factors may act as an inhibiting influence on the development of the highest possible quality of education. Such factors as a lack of understanding of the vital role education plays in the lives of today’s citizens and a lack of resources to pay the price for quality education can inhibit the development of a sound educational program.

    The schools of a corporation have their own unique problems, which are the result of changes in population, in the nature of the school children, the social, cultural, and economic life of the area and the changes that occur in school programs.

    There are, however, other factors of a national scope that must be considered in planning and executing an educational program that meets the needs of the future citizens of our society. To the best of its ability, a modern school system must translate the demands of our times into experiences that equip students to live in a society that emphasizes change, mobility, and adaptability. Technological advances are creating a rapidly changing employment picture. The U.S. Department of Labor has estimated that these advances in technology will force some people to change the nature of their employment ten or more times during their lifetime.

    While statistical summaries of any community can be misleading, they can provide prompts for thinking about the community and the role that a quality educational system does play in the viability of that community. In this regard, it is noted that according to the Federal Bureau of the Census, 115,209 people lived in Johnson County in 2000. One township, White River makes up the Center Grove Community School Corporation (CGCSC) and had a total population of 35,539 or 30.8 percent of the total county population. In 2000, nearly 29.8 percent of the county population was under 20 years of age, while 11.0 percent was 65 or over. The under 20 percentage was considerably higher than the state percentage of 25.9 percent and the over 65 years percentage was significantly lower than the state’s 12.4 percent. The median age in Johnson County was 34.9 compared to a statewide median age of 35.2. Thus, the population of the county is a bit younger than the state average. Further, 85.7 percent of the county population has a high school diploma compared to 82.1 percent statewide, while 23.1percent of the residents have four or more years of college compared to 19.4 percent of the statewide population.


    In 2000 the county’s median household income was $52,693 or about $11,126 more than the state average, while per capita income was $29,426 or $2,493 more than the state average. This suggests a rather affluent community in terms of household and personal economics. The county had 63,860 employed workers with a May 2003 unemployment rate of 3.5 percent compared to 4.8 percent statewide. Thus, the county population is significantly younger, more educated, earning more money both in median household income and per capita income and has a lower unemployment rate than the state of Indiana.

    Other statistics of note for Johnson County were as follows:

    Figure 1
    General Statistics for Johnson County and Indiana

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    Johnson County
    State or
    County vs. State
    Total Population 1990
    88,109
    5,441,569
    Total Population 2002
    121,604
    6,159,068
    Total Population 2020 (Estimated)
    136,408
    6,481,489
    Preschool (Age 0-4)
    8,585
    7.5/7.0%
    School Age (Age 5-19)
    25,773
    22.3/18.9%
    Adults (Age 20-64)
    68,213
    59.2/61.7%
    Older (Age 65+)
    12,638
    11.0/12.4%
    K-12 School Enrollment, 2001-02
    21,773
    10 of 92
    Median Age
    34.9
    35.2
     
    Johnson County
    State or
    County vs. State
    Married Couples with Children
    12,517
    29.5/23.8%
    Married without Children
    13,792
    32.5/29.8%
    Single Parents
    3,353
    7.9/9.1%
    Residents High School Graduates
    85.7
    82.1%
    Residents Four Years or More College
    23.1
    19.4%
     
    Johnson County
    State or
    County vs. State
    Median Household Income
    52,693
    41,567
    Per Capita Income
    29,426
    26,933
    Median Value Home
    122,500
    94,300
    Poverty Rate, 2000
    5.6%
    9.5%
     
    Johnson County
    State or
    County vs. State
    Residential Building Permits, 2002
    1,244
    Residential Building Permits Single Family
    1,104
    Residential Building Permits Multi-Family
    140
     
    Johnson County
    State or
    County vs. State
    Total Resident Labor Force, 2002
    60,240
    3,174,763
    Employed
    63,860
    3,011,785
    Unemployed
    2,380
    162,978
    Unemployment Rate, May 2003
    3.5%
    4.8%

    Employed Workers, 2002, Totaled 63,860 in Johnson County
    Into Johnson County to work from: Marion, Morgan, Bartholomew, Shelby and Brown Counties.
    Out of County to work to: Marion, Bartholomew, Morgan, Hamilton and Hendricks Counties.
    Source: United States Census Bureau, Indiana Business Research Center

    The County seat of Johnson County is Franklin, Indiana. State highways 135, 144, 44 and 252 serve the county as well as Interstate I-65. United States Highways 31 and 37 traverse the county from north to south. The residents of Johnson County are most typically employed in their county of residency with many going out of the county to Marion, Bartholomew, Morgan, Hamilton and Hendricks Counties. In 2000 some 60,240 residents of Johnson County were in the labor force. The area tends to very directly reflect the state of the economy of central Indiana and the Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    The Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area, consisting of Marion and the eight surrounding counties in central Indiana, often referred to as the “doughnut” counties, has been in a dramatic transition over the past 40 years with respect to population shift. In 1900 the area had about 400,000 people. By 1950 the population had doubled to nearly 800,000 people and in 2000, 1.6 million. A gain of 227,000 people during the 1990’s is second only to the growth from 1950 to 1960 during the peak of the “Baby Boom.” Of further significance is the dramatic shift from Center Township, Marion County, Indianapolis, to the outlying townships and doughnut counties. This urban sprawl (decentralized population) can be seen in the fact that as late as 1950 Center Township had more people than the eight doughnut counties combined, now there are some 4.5 suburban residents for every resident of Center Township. The impact in the doughnut counties has been significant. Starting on the west, the Hendricks County communities of Brownsburg, Avon and Plainfield have all experience extensive population growth, while on the south areas in Johnson County such as Center Grove, Clark-Pleasant and Greenwood have seen double and triple digit percentage increases. While infra structure availability has been slower to develop to the east in Hancock County to allow for housing development, population growth there is now beginning to strengthen. Nowhere, however, has the population growth been as dramatic as it has been to the north of Marion County in Hamilton County in areas such as Fishers, Noblesville, Carmel and Westfield.

    Table 1 presents the total population of Johnson County for 1970 to 2000.

    Table 1
    Census Data for Johnson County, 1970-2000

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    Year
    1970
    1980
    1990
    2000
    Population
    61,138
    77,240
    88,109
    115,209

    The total population of Johnson County has increased from 61,138in 1970 to 115,093 in 2000 for an increase of 53,955 people or 88.34 percent. In 1990 Johnson County was the 15th largest county in Indiana. By 2002 Johnson County was the 11th largest in Indiana in terms of total population and continues on a sharp growth curve thus making Johnson County one of Indiana’s fastest growing during the 1990’s. The Indiana Business Research Center projects Johnson County will grow from 115,209 to 154,389 or by 39,180 or 34.0 percent during the first two decades of the 21st Century, while their projection for growth for all of Indiana is just 5.2 percent. Table 2 shows the projected growth by age cohort for Johnson County for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

    Table 2
    Projected Population By Age Cohorts, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020
    For Johnson County, Indiana

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    Year
    Age 0-4
    Age 5-19
    Age 20-24
    Age 24-44
    Age 45-64
    Age 65+
    Total
    2005
    9,220
    28,889
    7,541
    38,382
    31,098
    15,028
    132,258
    2010
    9,639
    30,360
    7,974
    39,248
    36,134
    17,381
    140,736
    2015
    9,970
    30,577
    8,306
    40,175
    38,928
    20,373
    148,329
    2020
    10,215
    30,697
    8,453
    40,858
    40,476
    23,690
    154,389

    It is noted that while the total population is projected to increase from 132,258 to 154,389, some 16.7 percent between 2005 and 2020, the age 5- 19 school age cohort is expect to increase by just 6.3 percent. Clearly the older age cohorts will increase in number more dramatically than the younger cohorts in future decades. The median age in Johnson County in 2000 was 34.9 years of age. The median age for the county is projected to be 35.9 in 2005, 36.8 in 2010, 37.8 in 2015 and 38.8 by 2020.

    Table 3 presents the total population of the political subdivisions of Johnson County for 1970 through 2000 with number and percent of change since 1970. From Table 3 it is noted that White River, Pleasant and Franklin Townships grew substantially from 1970 to 2000 from a total number standpoint, while Blue River Township declined significantly. White River Township of the CGCSC comprised 17.6 percent of the county population in 1970 (10,740 of 61,138) but by 2000 White River Township had grown to a total population of 35,539 or 30.5 percent of the total county population.

    Table 3
    Total Population of Political Subdivisions of Johnson County for 1970-2000
    With Number and Percent of Change Since 1970

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    Townships
    1970
    1980
    1990
    2000
    Number
    % Change
    Blue River Township
    7,254
    5,319
    5,115
    5,189
    -2,065
    -28.5%
    Clark Township
    1,584
    1,690
    1,632
    1,900
    +316
    +19.9%
    Franklin Township
    12,237
    12,972
    13,774
    18,752
    +6,515
    +53.2%
    Hensley Township
    2,054
    2,265
    2,500
    3,002
    +948
    +46.2%
    Needham Township
    2,924
    3,339
    3,538
    4,725
    +1,801
    +61.6%
    Ninevah Township
    1,864
    2,999
    3,278
    3,975
    +2,111
    +113.3%
    Pleasant Township
    20,684
    26,106
    28,094
    39,901
    +19,217
    +92.9%
    Union Township
    1,797
    2,023
    1,946
    22,226
    +429
    +23.9%
    White River Township
    10,740
    20,527
    28,232
    35,539
    +24,799
    +230.9%
    Total
    61,138
    77,240
    88,109
    115,209
    +54,071
    +88.4%
    Source: U.S. Bureau of Census

    White River Township accounted for a full 45.9 percent of the county’s population growth during this three-decade period.

    The student enrollment impact of this general population growth in Johnson County and the Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area is demonstrated in Table 4 which presents the student population of Marion County and contiguous school corporations to Marion County for 1992 and 2002. Fastest growing among the 26 was Hamilton Southeastern at 7,371 students or 220.3 percent, Westfield-Washington at 2,515 students or 136.6 percent and Avon Community School Corporation at 2,946 students or 98.2 percent. The CGCSC ranked 14th out of the 26 at 1,526 student growth or 27.9 percent. Northwest Shelby declined 33 students during the period, however, the clear looser of student population was the Indianapolis Public Schools losing 10,321 students during the period or 20.2 percent of its student population. Overall the area student population grew by a net of 38,794 students or 22.39 percent while the state of Indiana’s total student population was growing by only 3.65 percent.

    Table 4
    Marion County and Contiguous School Corporation’s ADM, 2002 Compared to 1992
    With Number and Percent of Change, Rank Ordered by Percent of Change

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    School Corporation
    1992
    ADM
    2002
    ADM
    Number
    Change
    Percent
    Change
    Hamilton Southeastern
    3,345
    10,716
    7,371
    220.30
    Westfield-Washington
    1,841
    4,356
    2,515
    136.60
    Avon
    3,000
    5,946
    2,946
    98.20
    Pike Township
    5,348
    10,092
    4,744
    88.70
    Eagle-Union
    2,311
    4,012
    1,701
    73.60
    Clark-Pleasant
    2,364
    3,776
    1,412
    59.70
    Brownsburg
    3,541
    5,656
    2,115
    59.20
    Carmel-Clay
    8,297
    12,905
    4,608
    55.50
    Franklin Township
    4,476
    6,454
    1,978
    44.20
    Lawrence Township
    11,384
    16,142
    4,758
    41.80
    Noblesville
    4,873
    6,854
    1,981
    40.70
    Southern Hancock
    2,082
    2,860
    778
    37.40
    Mooresville
    3,322
    4,300
    978
    29.40
    Center Grove
    5,460
    6,986
    1,526
    27.90
    Warren Township
    9,076
    11,288
    2,212
    24.40
    Greenwood
    3,134
    3,856
    722
    23.00
    Mount Vernon
    2,342
    2,858
    534
    23.00
    Beech Grove
    1,988
    2,445
    457
    23.00
    Plainfield
    3,302
    3,971
    669
    20.30
    Wayne Township
    12,081
    14,245
    2,164
    17.90
    Speedway
    1,403
    1,648
    245
    17.50
    Perry Township
    11,168
    12,971
    1,803
    16.10
    White River Township
    9,479
    10,156
    677
    7.10
    Decatur Township
    5,117
    5,371
    254
    5.10
    Northwest Shelby
    1,532
    1,499
    -33
    -2.20
    Indianapolis Public Schools
    51,052
    40,731
    -10,321
    -20.20
    Totals
    173,300
    212,094
    38,794
    22.39
    State Totals
    925,483
    959,223
    33,740
    3.65

    CGCSC’S WHITE RIVER TOWNSHIP GENERAL POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
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    Table 5 presents a profile of general demographic characteristics for White River Township, all of Johnson County and the state of Indiana. In addition to the total township population of the CGCSC and the percentages for a variety of age cohort groups presented earlier, it is noted that 67.7 percent of the population of the CGCSC was born in Indiana compared to 71.9 percent for the entire county and 69.3 for the state. This is the result of the in-migration discussed earlier and reflects the fact that the increase in population is within-state in-migration. Such a change in population is very often a signal for a preference for the quality of life of the community by the in-migraters, enhanced pride in the community and a willingness to invest in the future of the institutions of the community by community members. The median age in the CGCSC at 35.9 years compared to the county’s 34.9 and the state’s 35.2 years of age and indicates a slightly older population in the CGCSC than is generally found in the state. The population of the school corporation is generally more white than the rest of the county and the state. White River Township has a larger percentage of households with children under 18 than the rest of the county and the state, 44.1 percent v. 37.4 percent and 32.9 percent respectively. Thus, the population growth in the CGCSC includes a greater number of younger families with young children than the rest of the area. The average family size in the CGCSC is greater than both the rest of the county and the state of Indiana at 3.14 persons per family.

    Table 5
    Profile of General Demographic Characteristics for
    White River Township, Johnson County and Indiana, 2000 Census

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    General Demographic
    Characteristic
    White River
    Township
    Johnson
    County
    State of
    Indiana
    Total Population
    35,539(30.8%)
    115,209
    6,080,485
    Population Under 5
    2,693(7.6%)
    8,585(7.5%)
    7.0%
    Population Under 19
    11,342(31.9%)
    34,358(29.8%)
    25.9%
    Population Over 60
    3,998(11.2%)
    16,692(14.7%)
    16.3%
    Born in Indiana
    67.7%
    71.9%
    69.3%
    Median Age
    35.9
    34.9
    35.2
    White Population
    34,888(98.2%)
    112,489(97.6%)
    87.5%
    African-American Population
    86(.02%)
    1,096(1.0%)
    8.4%
    Hispanic-Latino Population
    410(1.2%)
    1,591(.09%)
    3.5%
    Households with Children Under 18
    5,411(44.1%)
    15,870(37.4%)
    32.9%
    Average Family Size
    3.14
    3.06
    3.05

    As shown in Table 5 Continued below, total new housing units in White River Township in 2000 was 8,026 with 62.9 percent built since 1990 and a full 37.1 percent built since 1995. Only 54.7 percent of White River Township residents are in the same home they were in 1995. Some 16.0 percent are in a different house in Johnson County than in 1995. Approximately 9.6 percent of the population of the township migrated from out of state to the CGCSC since 1995 compared with 8.1 percent countywide. Residents of the county and the township are more likely to own housing rather than rent when compared to the population across Indiana.

    Table 5 Continued
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    General Demographic
    Characteristic
    White River
    Township
    Johnson
    County
    State of
    Indiana
    Total Housing Units
    12,825
    45,095
    2,532,319
    Housing Units Built Since 1990
    5,047(39.4%)
    14,358(31.8%)
    17.3%
    Housing Units Built Since 1995
    2,979(23.2%)
    9,084(20.1%)
    10.3%
    Same House Since 1995
    54.7%
    51.8%
    55.0%
    Different House/Same County Since 1995
    16.0%
    19.1%
    25.5%
    Different House/Different State Since 1995
    9.6%
    8.1%
    8.0%
    Renter Occupied Housing Units
    1,211(9.9%)
    9,971(23.5%)
    28.6%

    As shown below, in terms of labor force statistics, CGCSC females are employed at a rate much greater than what is found within the county and across the state. Also, township females with children under six years of age are by far more fully employed than both the county and state percentages. Employees of both White River Township and the county are more heavily employed in the management and professional areas and sales and office positions areas of the economy and less so in construction and production when compared to the state.

    White River Township and Johnson County are far more affluent economically than is generally the case in Indiana. White River Township’s median household income is $27,466 per year greater than the state, while county median household income is $11,126 per year greater than the Indiana median household income. Fifty-nine point four percent of the state’s median household income is under $50,000 while only 29.8 percent of White River Township and 46.5 percent of the county is under $50,000. In Indiana, 10.2 percent of the families with children under 18 are at or below the poverty line, while just 2.9 percent of the township and 4.7 percent of the county families with children under 18 are at or below the poverty level. This decreases even further, however, for families with children under five years of age. In Indiana, 13.7 percent of the families with children under five are at or below poverty levels, while in White River Township 3.6 percent and in the county.

    Table 5 Continued
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    General Demographic Characteristic
    White River
    Township
    Johnson
    County
    State of
    Indiana
    Female 16 Years+ in Labor Force
    65.9%
    63.5%
    60.0%
    Females with Children Under Six
    All Parents in Labor Force
    63.9%
    60.8%
    62.5%
    Occupations:
    Management/Professional and Related
    43.1%
    33.9%
    28.7%
    Service
    8.7%
    11.6%
    14.2%
    Sales/Office
    29.2%
    27.4%
    25.3%
    Construction/Maintenance
    7.1%
    10.3%
    10.0%
    Production
    11.8%
    16.4%
    21.4%
    Median household Income
    $69,033
    $52,693
    $41,567
    Median Household Income
    Less than $50,000
    29.8%
    46.5%
    59.4%
    Per Capita Income
    $28,133
    $22,976
    $20,397
    Poverty Status for Families
    with Children Under 18
    2.9%
    4.7%
    10.2%
    Poverty Status for Families
    with Children Under 5
    3.6%
    6.8%
    13.7%
    Poverty Families No Husband Present
    11.9%
    13.1%
    23.4%

    6.8 percent of families with children under five are at or below poverty status. Lastly, it is noted that in the families of the CGCSC with no husband present, 11.9 percent are considered poverty families while 23.4 percent of the state and 13.1 percent of the county’s families where no husband is present were considered poverty families by the 2000 census. Thus, in the CGCSC, families living at or below the poverty level are more likely than not to be one-parent, mother only families.

    Housing values is another important measure in determining the impact of changing population on school enrollments. Generally the higher price of the home, the less young, school aged children the occupants will have. In Indiana 55.3 percent of the homes are valued under $50,000. In CGCSC just 12.7 percent are valued under $50,000 and 31.5 percent in the county. In Indiana, 36.4 percent of the homes are valued between $100,000 and $200,000, while in the CGCSC 61.6 percent are in this range. For Johnson County 54.7 percent of the homes are valued between $100,000 and $200,000. Johnson County has 13.8 percent of its homes valued over $200,000, while for the CGCSC that percentage is 25.6 percent while the state is 8.3 percent.

    Table 5 Continued
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    General Demographic
    Characteristic
    White River
    Township
    Johnson
    County
    State of
    Indiana
    Housing value Under $100,000
    12.7%
    31.5%
    55.3%
    Housing Value $100,000-$200,000
    61.6%
    54.7%
    36.4%
    Housing Value Above $200,000
    25.6%
    13.8%
    8.3%

    The nature of the population for White River Township of the CGCSC is clearly younger, better educated, more fully employed, making more money and living in more expensive homes than is generally the case in Johnson County. The CGCSC reflects little diversity in their population.

    The people who make up the economic and family profiles represented by such data as presented in Table 5 tend to have high expectations for their children and thus high expectations for their public schools. As Center Grove Community School Corporation plans for its future in terms of needed facilities and the breadth and depth of its curricular and extra-curricular programs it will indeed need to consider the social and cultural nature of its population.


    STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS
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    As this report moves toward projecting future student population it is important to delineate some assumptions that if not accurate can change the outcome of the projections. Those assumptions are:

    1. The legal age for attending schools in Indiana will remain the same
    2. The percentage of children now attending public schools will remain at the present level
    3. The school corporation boundaries will remain as they are at present
    4. The students will progress through the grade levels at about the same retention rate as at present
    5. The dropout rate will remain about the same
    6. The current pattern of enrollment increases and decreases will remain the same

    Table 6 presents the student enrollment for CGCSC by grade level and current grade configuration for the period 1993 to and including the 2003-04 school year.

    Table 6
    Center Grove Community School Corporation Corporation-wide Enrollments
    By Grade Level and Grade Configuration, 1993-2003

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    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    Kdg
    389
    404
    420
    413
    439
    473
    473
    467
    522
    494
    434
    1
    392
    453
    452
    500
    488
    520
    526
    505
    529
    584
    579
    2
    416
    418
    476
    473
    503
    506
    514
    524
    511
    519
    579
    3
    433
    437
    444
    499
    489
    526
    524
    540
    539
    538
    524
    4
    462
    468
    454
    461
    531
    518
    537
    536
    553
    557
    538
    5
    445
    489
    476
    470
    451
    559
    523
    535
    529
    558
    555
    Total
    2,537
    2,669
    2,722
    2,816
    2,901
    3,102
    3,097
    3,107
    3,183
    3,250
    3,209
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    423
    445
    454
    469
    484
    517
    516
    518
    531
    542
    535
    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    6
    505
    466
    522
    484
    479
    473
    576
    558
    574
    563
    566
    7
    512
    483
    468
    524
    494
    594
    503
    574
    564
    582
    581
    8
    476
    480
    527
    482
    528
    501
    513
    492
    596
    561
    586
    Total
    1,493
    1,429
    1,517
    1,490
    1,501
    1,468
    1,592
    1,624
    1,734
    1,706
    1,733
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    498
    476
    506
    497
    500
    489
    531
    541
    578
    569
    578
    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    9
    522
    589
    533
    545
    515
    541
    568
    559
    561
    644
    602
    10
    449
    492
    499
    504
    535
    483
    512
    517
    489
    496
    600
    11
    465
    422
    497
    486
    487
    514
    440
    478
    488
    442
    451
    12
    411
    432
    428
    469
    485
    458
    471
    421
    470
    458
    438
    Total
    1,847
    1,835
    1,957
    2,004
    2,022
    1,996
    1,991
    1,975
    2,008
    2,040
    2,091
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    462
    459
    489
    501
    514
    499
    498
    494
    502
    510
    523

    Corp Total
    5,877
    5,933
    6,196
    6,310
    6,424
    6,566
    6,680
    6,706
    6,925
    6,996
    7,033
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    452
    456
    477
    485
    494
    505
    514
    516
    533
    538
    541
    Year #
    Change
    56
    263
    114
    114
    142
    114
    25
    219
    71
    37
    Year %
    Change
    0.9%
    4.4%
    1.8%
    1.8%
    2.2%
    1.7%
    0.4%
    3.3%
    1.0%
    0.5%

    From 1993 to the current 2003-04 school year the Center Grove Community School Corporation increased from 5,877 students to 7,033. That represents a 1,156 student increase or 19.7 percent. The elementary grades kindergarten through grade five, increased from 2,537 to 3,209 for a 672 student or 26.5 percent increase. The average class size for the six elementary grades grew from 423 students per grade to 535 students per grade or 112 students per grade.

    The middle school grades, grades six through eight, increased from 1,493 students to 1,733 for a 240 student and 16.1 percent increase. The middle school grades went from an average per grade of 498 to 578. Thus, the elementary grade cohorts that will replace the middle school students in the near future will be smaller on average than they have been in the past. However, the corporation historically shows a significant increase in grade six enrollment compared to the previous years fifth grade enrollment due to net immigration from parochial school settings. This is a strong signal of increasing future enrollment at both the middle and high school levels of the grade configuration.

    The high school, grades nine through twelve have increased significantly over the past ten years. In 1993 there were 1,847 students in grades nine through twelve averaging 462 students per grade. In 2003-04 there are 2,091 total students averaging 523 students per grade. Again, however, when we compare the current average of 523 students per grade at the high school with the 578 students per grade at the middle school level it is clear that larger cohort groups from the middle schools will replace the smaller cohort groups graduating from the high school. This is another indicator of increasing student enrollment for the secondary schools in the near future.

    Total enrollment change has not varied greatly from year to year over the eleven-year period. Only two of the years saw enrollment growth of less than one percent, while most year to year increases were in the two to three percent range.

    The eleven-year high for total student population is the current school year with a total of 7,033 students. Each of the past five years have shown increases over the previous year at about the same year-to-year percentage increases in the first five year. These increases appear to be a continuing trend for the near term future.

    Table 7 presents the Center Grove Community School Corporation elementary enrollments by grade level from 1993 to 2003.

    Table 7
    CGCSC Elementary Enrollments By Grade Level, 1993-2003

    Top of Page

    ,
    522
    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    Kdg
    389
    404
    420
    413
    439
    473
    473
    467
    494
    434
    1
    392
    453
    452
    500
    488
    520
    526
    505
    529
    584
    579
    2
    416
    418
    476
    473
    503
    506
    514
    524
    511
    519
    579
    3
    433
    437
    444
    499
    489
    526
    524
    540
    539
    538
    524
    4
    462
    468
    454
    461
    531
    518
    537
    536
    553
    557
    538
    5
    445
    489
    476
    470
    451
    559
    523
    535
    529
    558
    555
    Total
    2,537
    2,669
    2,722
    2,816
    2,901
    3,102
    3,097
    3,107
    3,183
    3,250
    3,209
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    423
    445
    454
    469
    484
    517
    516
    518
    531
    542
    535

    The first five years of the eleven years shown averaged 413 kindergarten students per year. The past five years have averaged 478 an increase of 65 kindergarten students on average per year. If you increase each class in the six-year elementary school life by 65 students per year, you would project an elementary enrollment approximately 390 more than historical numbers. Table 7 also demonstrates that at each grade level, the total elementary enrollment and the average number of students per grade are all on a trend line of increasing numbers. The corporation increased its total student population by 1,156 students from 1993 to 2003. The elementary grades accounted for 58.1 percent of that increase. To be sure, the elementary grades are the majority of the future population of most school systems.

    Table 8 presents the middle school enrollments by grade level for the CGCSC from 1993 to 2003.

    Table 8
    CGCSC Middle School Enrollments, 1993-2003

    Top of Page

    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    6
    505
    466
    522
    484
    479
    473
    576
    558
    574
    563
    566
    7
    512
    483
    468
    524
    494
    594
    503
    574
    564
    582
    581
    8
    476
    480
    527
    482
    528
    501
    513
    492
    596
    561
    586
    Total
    1,493
    1,429
    1,517
    1,490
    1,501
    1,468
    1,592
    1,624
    1,734
    1,706
    1,733
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    498
    476
    506
    497
    500
    489
    531
    541
    578
    569
    578

    The middle school grades enrollment has increased from 1,493 in 1993 to 1,733 in 2003 for a 240 student or 16.1 percent increase. The first year of the eleven years shown above the per grade average number of students was 498 increasing to 578 for the current school year for an increase of 80 students per grade per year. The current average of 578 per grade will be replaced by 535 students per grade on average in the near term future. However, as indicated in the elementary analysis, grade six enrollment historically is significantly larger than previous year fifth grade enrollment due to in-migration from parochial school settings. As was true at the elementary level above, all total numbers for each grade level and for the entire configuration are on a significantly increasing trend line year to year.

    Table 9 presents the high school enrollments by grade level from 1993 to 2003. Table 9 shows the increase in high school enrollment from 1993 to 2003 to be 244 students or 13.2 percent. The current per grade average of 541 students in grades nine through twelve will be replaced by an average of 578 students per year in the near term future. The increases in the elementary and middle school totals per grade have been continued by the increases at the high school level. Thus, all grade levels in the grade configuration of the CGCSC have participated in the net in-migration and growth of the school corporation’s student population.

    Table 9
    CGCSC High School Enrollments By Grade Level, 1993-2003

    Top of Page

    Grade
    1993
    1994
    1995
    1996
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    9
    522
    589
    533
    545
    515
    541
    568
    559
    561
    644
    602
    10
    449
    492
    499
    504
    535
    483
    512
    517
    489
    496
    600
    11
    465
    422
    497
    486
    487
    514
    440
    478
    488
    442
    451
    12
    411
    432
    428
    469
    485
    458
    471
    421
    470
    458
    438
    Total
    1,847
    1,835
    1,957
    2,004
    2,022
    1,996
    1,991
    1,975
    2,008
    2,040
    2,091
    Avg. Per
    Grade
    462
    459
    489
    501
    514
    499
    498
    494
    502
    510
    523

    PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS
    Top of Page
    Table 10 presents an analysis of the resident live birth rates for Johnson County and the number of kindergarten students entering the Center Grove Community School Corporation five years later beginning with 1987. Such a calculation is important in determining future enrollments by projecting future kindergarten enrollments. There has been a steady increase in year-to-year resident live births in Johnson County over the past 16 years. From 1987 to 1991 the county averaged 1,250 resident live births per year. For the period 1992 to 1996 resident live births increased to an average of 1,382 per year. From 1997 to 2001 an average of 1,602 resident live births were recorded for Johnson County. In 2001, our most recent year for full year data, 1,649 resident live births were recorded for Johnson County. For only 1993 and 1996 has the county resident live birth rate shown any departure from the increasing trend line. In 1993, 1,306 resident live births were recorded, while in 1996, 1,415 were recorded, both figures representing less resident live births than the previous year.


    Table 12
    Number of Live Births in Johnson County from 1987 Through 2002
    And Number of Students Entering Kindergarten Five Years Later

    Top of Page

    Year
    Johnson County
    Live Births
    Year
    CGCSC Kindergarten
    Enrollment
    % of Resident Live Births
    as Kindergarten Enrollment
    1987
    1,181
    1992
    345
    29.0%
    1988
    1,221
    1993
    389
    31.9%
    1989
    1,227
    1994
    404
    32.9%
    1990
    1,288
    1995
    420
    32.6%
    1991
    1,332
    1996
    413
    31.0%
    Totals
    6,249(1,250/Year)
    1,971(394/Year)
    31.5%
    1992
    1,334
    1997
    439
    32.9%
    1993
    1,306
    1998
    473
    36.2%
    1994
    1,398
    1999
    473
    33.8%
    1994
    1,456
    2000
    467
    32.1%
    1996
    1,415
    2001
    522
    36.9%
    Totals
    6,909(1,382/Year)
    2,347(475/Year)
    34.4%
    1997
    1,448
    2002
    494
    34.1%
    1998
    1,597
    2003
    434
    27.2%
    1999
    1,641
    2004
    522
    32.7%*
    2000
    1,673
    2005
    547
    32.7%*
    2001
    1,649
    2003
    539
    32.7%*
    Totals
    8,008(1,602/Year)
    2,536(507/year)
    2002
    1,651**
    2005
    541
    32.7%*
    2003
    1,651**
    2006
    541
    32.7%*
    2004
    1,651**
    2007
    541
    32.7%*
      *Estimate based on 1,654 resident live births per year, the past three year average.
    **Estimated based on 32.7% of resident live births, the average of the past three years.

    In terms of kindergarten enrollment five years after a given years' resident live births, from 1992 to 1996 Center Grove Community School Corporation enrolled an average of 31.5 percent of the resident live births from five years previous. For the period 1997 to 2001 that average had increased to 34.4 percent per year. For 2002 the Center Grove Community School Corporation enrolled 34.1 percent of the resident live births from give years previous. However, for 2003 the kindergarten enrollment is just 27.2 percent of the resident live births from 1998. This represents a major departure from the historical pattern of the school corporation. It is believed that the chagne is due in large measure to the number of kindergarten aged youngsters being enrolled in provate or parochial all day programs but will join the CGCSC in first grade.

    It is speculative to project a continuing increase in resident live birth rates. Birth rates ten to delcine during times of economic downturn as currently experienced in Indiana and the nation. This fact, however, has not presented itself in the Johnson County resident live birth rates for the late 1990s and the first years of 2000. It is less speculative to project that the percentage of county resident live births in White River Township will continue to increase. This study assumes a continuing resident live birth rate consistent with the average number of resident live births recorded over the past three years. Further, this study assumes that the percentage of resident live births that will enroll in the CGCSC five years later will be 32.7 percent, the average over the past three years.

    The projection of future kindergarten enrollments is shown in Table 12 above. The resident live birth rates for Johnson County have increased at an average annual rate of approximately two percent per year. The projected resident live births in Table 12 assume an average of 1,654 resident live births per year. Further, the projections for Center Grove Community School Corporation kindergarten enrollment is based on 32.7 percent of the resident live births enrolling in the Center Grove Community School Corporation five years later. This method of projecting may be liberal on the live birth side and conservative on the enrollment side. Nonetheless, the projections are for kindergarten enrollments of 522 in 2004 547 in 2005, 539 in 2006, 541 in 2007 and beyond. These projections represent continued increases in kindergarten enrollment when compared to the recent past.

    While the above calculations help project how many students will enter the system in kindergarten in the future, year-to-year continuation rates help to understand how students stay with the system once enrolled. The continuation rate is a ratio between the number of pupils at one grade level succeeding to the next grade level the next year. For example, if in one year there were 335 students in one grade level and the following school year that number was 361 in the next grade level, the continuation rate would be 107.8 or a net in-migration of 7.8 percent for that grade cohort. A continuation rate of less than 100 would be evident in a grade that one year had 320 students while the next year at the next grade there were just 318 for a continuation rate of 99.4. These factors are influenced by migration in and out of the school district as well as retention policy or fluctuations in non-public school enrollments.

    Table 13 presents the average continuation rates for 1997-98 through 2003-04 by grade level and grade configuration for the Center Grove Community School Corporation. Also, Table 13 presents the average continuation rates for the past five years. For none of the school years shown is the average continuation rate below 100 percent. The five-year average continuation rates for the corporation at 101.2 indicates the continuing steady increase in total population experienced by the corporation over the period studied. The continuation rates trend higher than would be expected in most school corporations because of the significant increases in total student population across all grades of the grade configuration of the corporation. The average first grade class over the past five years has averaged 12.1 percent more students than the previous year’s kindergarten indicating a number of kindergarten students are enrolling in private or parochial programs and joining the CGCSC in first grade.

    Table 13
    Average Continuation Rate 1997-98 Through 2001-02
    by Grade Level With the Past Five Year Averages

    Top of Page

    Grade
    97-98
    98-99
    99-00
    00-01
    01-02
    02-03
    03-04
    5 Year
    Average
    Kdg
    1
    118.2%
    118.5%
    111.2%
    106.8%
    113.3%
    111.9%
    117.2%
    112.1%
    2
    100.6%
    103.7%
    98.8%
    99.6%
    101.2%
    98.1%
    99.1%
    99.4%
    3
    103.4%
    104.6%
    103.6%
    105.1%
    102.9%
    105.3%
    101.0%
    103.6%
    4
    106.4%
    105.9%
    102.1%
    102.3%
    102.4%
    103.3%
    100.0%
    102.0%
    5
    97.8%
    105.3%
    101.0%
    99.6%
    98.7%
    100.9%
    99.6%
    100.0%
    Total
    105.3%
    107.6%
    103.3%
    102.7%
    103.7%
    103.9%
    103.4%
    103.4%
    6
    101.9%
    104.9%
    103.0%
    106.7%
    107.3%
    106.4%
    101.4%
    105.0%
    7
    102.1%
    103.1%
    106.3%
    99.7%
    101.1%
    101.4%
    103.2%
    102.3%
    8
    100.8%
    101.4%
    103.8%
    97.8%
    103.8%
    99.5%
    100.7%
    101.1%
    Total
    101.6%
    103.1%
    104.4%
    101.4%
    104.1%
    102.4%
    101.8%
    102.8%
    9
    106.8%
    102.5%
    113.4%
    109.0%
    114.0%
    108.1%
    107.3%
    110.4%
    10
    98.2%
    93.7%
    94.6%
    91.2%
    87.5%
    88.4%
    93.2%
    91.0%
    11
    96.6%
    96.1%
    91.1%
    93.4%
    94.2%
    90.4%
    90.9%
    92.0%
    12
    99.8%
    94.0%
    91.6%
    95.7%
    98.3%
    93.9%
    99.1%
    95.7%
    Total
    100.4%
    96.6%
    97.7%
    97.3%
    98.5%
    95.2%
    97.6%
    97.3%
    Corp Total
    102.7%
    102.8%
    101.7%
    100.6%
    102.1%
    100.6%
    101.1%
    101.2%

    By using the projected kindergarten enrollments presented in Table 12 and the continuation rates as averaged in Table 13 for the most recent five-year period, the projected enrollment for the Center Grove Community School Corporation, from the present to 2011 is presented in Table 14 for each grade level of the corporation.

    Table 14
    Center Grove Community School Corporation Enrollments
    Projected by Three-Year Average Resident Live Birth Rate
    And Five-Year Continuation Rates, 2003-2011

    Top of Page

    Grade
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    Kdg
    434
    522
    547
    539
    541
    541
    541
    541
    541
    1
    579
    487
    585
    613
    604
    606
    606
    606
    606
    2
    579
    576
    484
    581
    606
    600
    602
    602
    602
    3
    524
    600
    597
    501
    602
    628
    622
    624
    624
    4
    538
    534
    612
    609
    511
    614
    641
    634
    636
    5
    555
    538
    534
    612
    609
    511
    614
    541
    634
    Elementary Total
    3,209
    3,257
    3,359
    3,455
    3,473
    3,500
    3,626
    3,648
    3,643
    6
    566
    583
    565
    561
    643
    639
    537
    645
    673
    7
    581
    579
    596
    578
    574
    658
    654
    549
    660
    8
    586
    587
    585
    603
    584
    580
    665
    661
    555
    Middle School Total
    1,733
    1,749
    1,746
    1,742
    1,801
    1,877
    1,856
    1,855
    1,888
    9 602 647 648 646 666 645 640 734 730
    10 600 548 589 590 589 606 587 582 730
    11 451 552 504 542 544 542 558 540 535
    12 538 432 528 482 519 521 519 534 517
    High School Total
    2,091
    2,179
    2,268
    2,260
    2,318
    2,314
    2,304
    2,390
    2,450
    Corporation Total
    7,033
    7,185
    7,373
    7,457
    7,592
    7,691
    7,786
    7,893
    7,981

    The total enrollment is projected to increase from the current year total of 7,033 to 7,981 by 2011. That is a 948 student increase or 13.5 percent

    The elementary enrollment, grades kindergarten through grade five as presented in Table 14 is projected to increase from 3,257 to 3,643 for an increase of 386 students or 11.9 percent. The middle school enrollment is projected to increase from the current year 1,733 to 1,888 for an increase of 155 students or 8.9 percent by 2011. The major change in population with the grade configuration of the corporation is projected to be at the high school where projections show the total student population increasing by 359 students to 2,450, an increase of 17.2 percent. It is noted that the main factors generating this projected increase are the number of kindergarten students entering the school corporation each year and the continuation rates detailing how the students will persist year to year in the school corporation and the net in-migration across all grade levels. Each of these factors were determined through a proven historical trend line and mathematical analysis. Unless a major community and/or economic change occurs within thecommunity in the short term, these projections should be within a percent to a percent and a half on a year-to-year basis.

    Table 15 presents a summary of the projected enrollments by grade configuration for the years 2003 through 2011.

    Table 15
    Center Grove Community School Corporation Corporation-Wide Enrollments
    Projected by Three-Year Average Resident Live Birth Rate
    And Five-Year Continuation Rates By
    K-5, 6-8, 9-12 Grade Configuration, 2002-2010

    Top of Page

    Grade
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    K-5 Totals
    3,209
    3,257
    3,359
    3,455
    3,473
    3,500
    3,626
    3,648
    3,643
    6-8 Totals
    1,733
    1,749
    1,746
    1,742
    1,801
    1,877
    1,856
    1,855
    1,888
    9-12 Totals
    2,091
    2,179
    2,268
    2,260
    2,318
    2,314
    2,304
    2,390
    2,450
    K-12 Totals
    7,033
    7,185
    7,373
    7,457
    7,592
    7,691
    7,786
    7,893
    7,981
Last Modified on July 17, 2008